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назад Оглавление вперед
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80 | 0.66% | 0.71% | 1.38% | 146% | 2.09% | 2.17% | 2 80% | 2 83% | | 0.76% | 0.72% | 1.47% | 1.46% | 2 19% | 2.17% | 2.91% | 2.82% | | 0.67% | 0.81% | 1.28% | 1.46% | 1.89% | 2.16% | 2.50% | 2.82% | | 0.78% | 0 87% | 1.65% | 1.46% | 2.52% | 2.16% | 3 39% | 2.81% | | 0.83% | 1.10V. | 1.93% | 1.45% | 3 03% | 2 15% | 4.14% | 2.80% | | 0.76% | 0.76... | 1.53% | 1.45% | 2.29% | 2.14<в. | 3.06% | 2.79% | | 0.68% | 0.63% | 1.31% | 1.44% | 1.94% | 2.14% | 2 57% | 2.78% | | 0.8244 | 1.12)( | 1.94% | 1.44% | 3.06% | 2.13% | 4.19% | 2.78% | | 0.83% | 1.46% | 2.2ВА | 1.44% | 3.74% | 2.13% | 5.20% | 2.77% | | 0.60% | 0.56% | 1.16% | 1.44«J | 172% | 2.12% | 2.27% | 2.76% | | 0.69% | 0.60% | 129« | 1.43% | 1.90% | 2.12% | 2.50% | 2.75% | | 0 89% | 1.34% | 2.23% | 1.43% | 3.66% | 2.11% | 4.90% | 2.74% | | 0.824 | 0.96% | 1.78% | 1.43% | 2.74% | 2.11% | 3.70% | 2.74% | | 0.64%! | 0.69% | 1.23% | 1.42% | 1.82% | 2 10% | 2.41% | 2.73% | | 0.75% | 0.79%1 | 1.54%1 | 1.42% | 2.34% | 2.10% | 3.13% | 2.72% | | 0.84% | 0.78%J | 1.62% | 1.42% | 2.40% | 2.09% | 3.18% | 271% | | 0.72% | 0.73% | 1.4в% | 1.42% | 2.19% | 2.09% | 2 92% | 2.70% | | 0.72% | 0.68% | 1.40% | 1.41% | 2.08% | 2.08% | 2.7/% | 2.70% | | 0.81% | 0.9B4<J | 1.79% | 1.41% | 2.77% | 2.08% | 3.75% | 2.69% | | 0.67% | 0.67% | 1.35% | 1.41% | 2 02% | 2.07% | 2 69% | 2.68% | | 0.73% | 0.91% | 1.64% | 1.40% | 2Л5% | 2.07% | 3 46% | 2.67% | | 0.79% | D.77% | 1.56% | 1.40% | 2.34% | 2.06% | 3.11% | 2.66% | | 0.64% | 0.55%. | 1.19% | 1.40% | 1.73% | 2 06% | 2.28% | 2.66% | | 0.71% | 0.70%. | 1 42% | 140% | 2.12% | 2.05% | 2.82% | 2.65% | | 0.77% | 0.71% | 1.48% | 1.39% | 2.19% | 2.05% | 2.90% | 2 64% | | 0.61% | 0.73% | 133% | 1.39% | 2.06% | 2.04% | 2.79% | 2.63% | | 0.72% | 0.78% | 1.50% | 1.39% | 2 28% | 2.04% | 3.07% | 2.62% | | 0.75% | 0.64% | 1.39% | 1.38% | 2.03% | 2 03% | 2.68% | 2.61% | | 0 65% | 0.58% | 1.23% | 1.38% | 1.81% | 2.03% | 2.39% | 2.61% | | 0.78% | 0.57% | 1.35% | 1.38% | 1.93% | 2.02% | 2.50% | 2.60% | | 0.91% | 0.87% | 1.79% | 1.38% | 2.66% | 2.02% | 3 53% | 2.59% | | 0.87% | 0.84% | 1.31% | 1.37% | 1.95% | 2.01% | 2 69% | 2.,3% | | 0.72% | 0.97% | 1.69% | 137% | 2.66% | 2.01% | 3.64% | 2.57% | | 0«0% | 0.69% | 1.29% | 1.37% | 1.98% | 2.00% | 2.87% | 2.57% | | 0.47% | 0.40% | 0.88% | 1.36% | 1.28Ч | 1.99% | 1.68% | 2.56% | | 0.70% | 0.68% | 1.36% | 1.36% | 2.07% | 1.99% | 2.75% | 2.56% | | 0.69% | 0.80% | 1.49% | 1.36% | 2.29% | 1.98% | 3.09% | 2.54% | | 0.80% | 094°. | 1 74«о | 1.36% | 2.6в«1 | 1.98% | 3.62% | 2.53% | | 0.69% | 073% | 1.42% | 1.35% | 2.14% | 1.97% | 2 87% | 2.53% | | 0 72% | 0.92% | 1.64% | 1.35% | 2.56% | 1.97% | 3.48% | 2.52% | | 064% | 0.48% | 1.12% | 135% | 1.60% | 1.96% | 2Л8% | 2.51% | | 0.56% | 0.47% | 1.03% | 1.34% | 1.50% | 1.96% | 1.97% | 2.50% | | 0.54% | 0.53% | 1.07% | 1.34% | 1.59% | 1.95% | 2.12% | 2.46% | | 0.62% | 0.52% | 1.14% | 1.34% | 1.86% | 1.95% | 2.19% | 2.49% | | 0.63% | 0.65% | 1.28% | 1.34% | 1.93% | 1.94% | 2.58% | 2.48% | | 0.57% | 0.52% | 1.09% | 133% | 1.61% | l.94%i | 2.13% | 2.47% | | 0.64% | 0.60% | 1.24% | 1.33% | 1.84% | 1.93% | 2.43 | 2.46% | | 0.80% | 1.36% | 2 16% | 1.33% | 3.52% | 1.93% | 4 87% | 2.45% |
| 065% | 0.62% | 127% | 1.32% | 189% | 1.92% | 251% | 2 45% | | 071% | 074% | 1 45% | 1,32% | 219% | 1.92% | 2 94% | 2.44% | | 058% | 0.60%1 | 1.18% | 1,32% | 1 78% | 1.91% | 2.38% | 2 43% | | 0.60% | 0.45% | 1.06% | 1,31% | 152% | 1 91% | 1.99% | 2.42% | | 0.64% | 0.51 % | 1-15% | 1.31% | 1.65% | 1.90% | 2 1в<к | 2 41% | | 0 69% | 0,68% | 1.38% | 1.31% | 2.064i | 1.90% | 2.74% | 2.41% | | 0.56% | 0.44% | 1 00% | 1.31% | 1.45% | 1.89% | 1 89% | 2.40% | | 0.75% | 0 71% | 1.46% | 1.30% | 2.16% | 1.89% | 2.87% | 2 39Ч( | | 076% | 0.55% | 1 32% | 1.30% | 187% | 1.68% | 2.42% | 2 38% | | 063% | 0,53% | 1.16% | 1.30% | 1 69% | 1.68% | 2.22% | 2,37Х | | 0.53% | 0.47% | 1 00% | 1.29% | 1,46% | 1.87% | 1.93% | 2.37% | | 0.91% | 1.19% | 2.10% | 1.29% | 3-30% | 1.87% | 4,49% | 2-36% | 14» | 074% | 0.68% | 1.42% | 1.29% | 2.10% | 1Л6% | 2.78% | 2-35% | | 0Ь4% | 0.56 | 1 10% | 1.29% | 166% | 1.86% | 222% | 2.34% | | 0.82% | 0 67«, | 149>i | 1.28% | 2 16% | 1.85% | 283% | 2.33% | | 0.66% | 0.58% | 1.24% | 128% | 1 83% | 1.84% | 241% | 2.33% | | 0.62% | 0.60% | 122% | 1,28% | 181% | 1.84% | 241% | 2.32% | | 074% | 0.90% | 164% | 127% | 2.55% | 1.83% | 3.45% | 231% | | 0.58% | 0.59% | 117% | 1,27% | 1.77% | 1.83% | 2 36% | 2.30% | | 0 57% | 0.51% | 1.08% | 1-27% | 1-56% | 1,82% | 2.09% | 2.29% | | 0.67% | 0.70% | 1.37% | 1,27% | 2.07% | 1,82% | 2-77% | 2.29% | | 0.60% | 0.55% | 1.14% | 1,26% | 169% | 1,81% | 2-23% | 2.28% | | 0.71% | 0 62% | 134% | 1,26% | 196% | 1,81% | 2 68% | 227% | | 065% | 0.54% | 1.19% | 1,26% | 173% | 1.80% | 2-26% | 2.26% | | 0 69% | o.eevJ | 1.38% | 1 26% | 2.06% | 1.80% | 2-74% | 2.25% | | 0.57% | 0.71% | 128% | 125% | 1.99% | 1.79% | 270% | 2.24% | | 0.56% | 0.48% | 1.04% | 1.25% | 1 61% | 1.79% | 1.99% | 2.24% | | 0.65% | 0.50% | 1.14% | 1,25% | 1.64% | 1.78% | 2 14% | 2.23% | | 055% | 0.40% | 0.95% | 1.24% | 1.34% | 1.78% | 1-74% | 2.22% | | 0.68% | 0.67% | 1.36% | 1544(J | глз% | 1.77% | 2.70% | 2,21% | «7 | 0.55% | 0 42% | 0.97С. | 1,24% | 1.39% | 1.77% | 182% | 220% | | 0.69% | 0.59% | 1.28* | 1,23% | 1.87% | 1,76% | 247% | 220% | | 0.52% | 0.42% | 0 93* | 1-23%. | 1.35% | 1,76% | 1.77% | 2 19% | | 050% | 0.33% | 0-83% | 1.23% | 1.17% | 1.75% | 1.50% | 2.18% | | 0В7% | 0.58% | 1.25% | 123%) | 1.84% | 1,75% | 2.42% | 2.17% | | 061% | 0.54% | 1.15%( | 1.22% | 1.69% | 1.74% | 2.23% | 2.16% | | 0.72% | 0.58% | | 1.22% | 188% | 1.74% | 246% | 2 16% | | 067% | 0.54% | 121% | 1.22% | 174% | 1.73% | 22»% | 2.15% | | 0.82% | 0.94% | 1.76% | 1,21% | 2.71% | 1,73% | 365% | 2.14% | | 0.58% | 0.67% | 1.26% | 121% | 1.93% | 1,72% | 2 60% | 2.13% | | 0.65% | 0.54% | 1.19% | 1.21% | 1.73% | 1 72% | 2 274!J | 2.12% | | 071% | 0.70% | 1.41% | 121% | 2.11% | 1,71% | 2.81% | 2.12% | | 0 62% | Oj68% | 1.30% | 120% | 1.98% | 1,71% | 2.66% | 2.11% | | 051% | 0.42% | 0.93% | 1.20% | 1.35% | 1.70% | 1.77% | 2.10% | Средняя вероятность (верхняя граница) | «7.8% | 88.2% | 94.7% | 94.8% | 97.0% | 96.8% |
СИХОЛОГИЯ vHatt легче управлять людьми, че.м помешать ilu управлять нами» Франсуа де .Пароиируко. французский писатель Слово «психология» впервые появилось в XVIII веке в работе немеикого фитософа Христиана Вольфа и произошло в результате слияния двух греческих слов «p.syche» (душа) и «logo.s» (учение, наука) Психология (наука о душе) стала, таким образом, продолжением одного из философских направлений. В настоящий момент психология изучает все явления, связанные с человеческой деятельностью и отражающие последнюю. Собственно сама психология уже переросла рамки общефилософского развития, а ее знания широко применяются на пра1чтике в самых разнообразных областях общественной и личной жизни После прочтения и осмысления настоящей главы вы откроете для себя, почему зачастую люди пост\т1агот иррационально, что и кто является главным врагом трейлера-инвестора, каковы проявления эмоционального рынка и многие другие психологические секреты повседневной действительности. Не секрет, что на сегодняшний день большинство людей, давно работающих на финансовых рынках, считают, что главной движущей силой, действующей на рынках, а также основной причиной появления убытков является психология в самом общем понимании этого слова Рыночное поведение можно фавиить со спортивным состязанием, для победы в котором необходимо сочетание трех факторов - физической подготовки, везения и психологической устойчивости. И пусть везение мы контролировать не можем, ио подготовиться физически (на рынках умственно, постоянно учась и держа свои знания «в форме») и психо.погически просто обязаны Иначе финансовых успехов будет добиваться ктоо другой, а кс мы. Несмотря на то, что род человеческий называется homo sapiens, т.е. человек разумный, только в большинстве случаев наше поведение далеко от разу-много. Область разумного осталась в главе, посвященной статистике, а также будет обсуждлться в главе о системах управления рисками. Здесь же мы проаиатизируем. почему же мы, как правило, поступаем иррационально, т.е. не так, как этого можно было бы ожидать от существа, всегда выбирающего наилучший нз имеющихся вариантов. Наилучшим признается вариант, который обеспечивает удовлетворение всех потребностей выбирающего лица. Важность понимания причин сдвига в человеческом поведении от разумного к иррациональному обусловлена необходимостью осознания собственных слабостей, а также возможностью практического применения законов ирраинональности рынка.
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