[] [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] [71] [72] [73] [74] [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] [80] [81] [82] [83] [84] [85] [86] [87] [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] [95] [96] [97] [98] [99] [100] [101] [102] [103] [104] [105] [106] [107] [108] [109] [110] [111] [112] [113] [114] [115] [116] [117] [118] [119] [120] [121] [122] [123] [124] [125] [126] [127] [128] [129] [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] [136] [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] [142] [143] [144] [145] [146] [147] [148] [149] [150] [151] [152] [153] [154] [155] [156] [157] [158] [159] [160] [161] [162] [163] [164] [165] [166] [167] [ 168 ] [169] [170] [171] [172] [173] [174] [175] [176] [177] [178] [179] [180] [181] [182] [183] [184] [185] [186] [187] [188] [189] [190] [191] [192] [193] [194]


168

.-2:

-

: 1928 - 1987

1

3

6

12

3301

13780

3780

4146

4146

4467

4467

4746

4746

500?

25260

5260

5520

5520

5810

5810

6132

6132

6488

86848

87248

7248

7670

7670

8125

8125

8586

8586

9162

9162

9947

99471

1241

11241

18530

« », «», « », «», « », «», « » .



. -3:

-

: 1928- 1987

1

3

6

12

0.000

3.081

3.081

3.488

3.488

3.814

3.814

4.084

4.086

4.304

4.304

4.500

4.500

4.499

4.699

4.887

4.887

5.093

5.093

5.324

5.324

5.567

5.567

5.329

5.829

6.107

4.107

6.411

6.411

6.739

6.739

7.127

7.127

7612

7612

8.289

8.289

9.147

9.147

14.196

« », «», « », «», « », «», « » .



60 . .

(Two Tumbles and Jmnp)

« » (The Institute for Econometric Research, 3471 North Federal Highway, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33306)*. - , .

« » , , ( , (discount rate, margin requirement, reserve requirement)) , .

, 1914 1983, « » 17 . ; :

S&P 500

20 3 6 1

+ 3.6% +11.3% +16.1% +30.5%

1317

1417 1617 1617

, , 4 . , .

« ».

[] [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] [71] [72] [73] [74] [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] [80] [81] [82] [83] [84] [85] [86] [87] [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] [95] [96] [97] [98] [99] [100] [101] [102] [103] [104] [105] [106] [107] [108] [109] [110] [111] [112] [113] [114] [115] [116] [117] [118] [119] [120] [121] [122] [123] [124] [125] [126] [127] [128] [129] [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] [136] [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] [142] [143] [144] [145] [146] [147] [148] [149] [150] [151] [152] [153] [154] [155] [156] [157] [158] [159] [160] [161] [162] [163] [164] [165] [166] [167] [ 168 ] [169] [170] [171] [172] [173] [174] [175] [176] [177] [178] [179] [180] [181] [182] [183] [184] [185] [186] [187] [188] [189] [190] [191] [192] [193] [194]